This page was originally written in March 2023 and was updated with new data in August 2023.

How do we work out how reliable trains are?

A great question! We measure reliability by what’s known as ‘PPM’ or ‘Public Performance Measure’. Every time a train runs (or doesn’t!) it’s separated into one of three categories:

• On-time – If it arrives less than five minutes late (10 for long-distance trains)
• Late – If it arrives between five (or 10) and 30 minutes late at its destination
• Very late/cancelled – If the train arrives more than 30 minutes late or is cancelled.

If your train is cancelled part-way through the trip or skips stops to make up time, it’ll also ‘fail’ PPM.

So what’s the least reliable train operator?

For June and July, the least-reliable train operator award goes to Grand Central. But why? Let’s go through some of the reasons:

• They’re a small company that only runs a few services each day. If even one service is cancelled, that has a big impact on their statistics
• Services run on a busy section of railway. The East Coast Mainline is prone to issues and their services interact with lots of others
• Their trains aren’t reliable. The fleet of Adelante trains are prone to breaking down, put simply! They’re remedying this though. Extra trains are being introduced so that there are more spares to fall back on.

Can we trust these statistics?

For some companies, you might be wondering how the statistics look quite reasonable, despite the fact that their trains seem to be so unreliable. For example, at the time of writing (16th August 2023), Northern’s JourneyCheck page looks disastrous:

Okay, so 103 of those cancellations are actually for the following day, but that seems like a lot more than 6% of trains being cancelled, which is what the official stats say. So, what actually happens here?

Put simply, if it’s cancelled before 10pm the previous day, it doesn’t count as a cancellation. This is known as ‘P-coding’ and means that it won’t be reflected in the performance statistics. Most frustratingly for passengers, the reason given is ‘a short notice change to the timetable’. This reason doesn’t tell you anything!

The latest report by the Office of Rail and Road from January to March 2023 shows just how this works. At the time that it was written, TransPennine Express were using P-coding extensively. Since then though, they’ve managed to improve industrial relations, and the statistics below are a far better reflection of reality.

So, is Grand Central the least reliable train operator? Officially, yes. Unofficially, perhaps not.

Who’s the most reliable train operator?

Now we’ve covered who the least reliable train operator is, it’s only right to cover who the most reliable one is.

If we focus purely on trains that are on-time, that’d be Caledonian Sleeper. They managed to run 96.8% of their trains on time.

The operator with the lowest rate of cancellations was c2c, with just 1.1%. Chiltern Railways isn’t far behind with 1.3%.

What do these operators all have in common? For one, a relatively common fleet of trains. Chiltern has three types of train and c2c is running just one type of train. Meanwhile, Caledonian Sleeper has just one fleet of carriages, and a few types of locomotive. Their trains run overnight, and have large allowances in the timetable in case of engineering works.

c2c and Merseyrail are also fairly self-contained networks. It’s unlikely that another company’s trains will cause them to be delayed, and they’re pretty small networks, as well.

What are the full statistics?

Want to know how your local operator did? Here’s the full statistics for June and July. We weren’t able to get monthly statistics for Hull Trains.

_{*Includes Southern, Thameslink, Great Northern and Gatwick Express.}

What can we take from this data? As you’d expect, companies that have smaller networks and don’t have to interact with too many operators tend to fare better. Those that travel over longer distances and interact with each other more are more vulnerable to delays.

Operators like Grand Central are also more vulnerable to poorer statistics, as they only run a handful of trains per day. If even just one train is delayed, that’ll cause a much bigger knock than on LNER or Avanti, for example.

What can I do when there’s a delay?

When you book with SmartSplit, we’ll let you know if there’s any planned changes to your train, if we’re given enough notice. If you choose to change your plans, we’ve got you covered, too.

You’re also entitled to claim compensation in the event of a delay. You can find out more with our guide on what to do when there’s disruption.

_{All punctuality data on this page is courtesy of trains.im. You can visit their site, check how your operator is doing and can also make a donation to help with upkeep.}

_{The data is also issued without liability, and is correct at the time of writing (16th August 2023).}

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